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Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter.
Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic!
Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below.
Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense.
Part III
  • Squeezes and other risks
  • Market positioning
  • Bet correlation
  • Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

Squeezes and other risks

We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.

Events

Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem.
This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week.
For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.

Squeezes

Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity.
The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class.
A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone.

There's a reason for the car, don't worry
Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price.
If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point.
To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price.
Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble.
Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it.
The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard.

Incredible event
Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.”
If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely.
This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze.
For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts.
A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me:
Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.

Asymmetric losses

Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy.
Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite.
A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012.
The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’.
They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally.
Then this happened.

Something that changed FX markets forever
The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%.
Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.

Market positioning

We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care?
Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care.
Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable.
To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on.
On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy.
We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like.

A carry trade position clear-out in action
Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful.
The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT").
This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market.
Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy.
You can find the data online for free and download it directly here.

Raw format is kinda hard to work with

However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”.

But you can easily get visualisations
You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful.
Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information.
As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning.
For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back?
A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity.
For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?”
In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit.
If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.

Bet correlation

Retail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are.
Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large.
Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates
For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem.
Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue.

Chart from TradingView
So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together.
The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each.
There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio.
A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance.
But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done?
For example:
  • You might diversify across time horizons by having a mix of short-term and long-term trades.
  • You might diversify across asset classes - trading some FX but also crypto and equities.
  • You might diversify your trade generation approach so you are not relying on the same indicators or drivers on each trade.
  • You might diversify your exposure to the market regime by having some trades that assume a trend will continue (momentum) and some that assume we will be range-bound (carry).
And so on. Basically you want to scan your portfolio of trades and make sure you are not putting all your eggs in one basket. If some trades underperform others will perform - assuming the bets are not correlated - and that way you can ensure your overall portfolio takes less risk per unit of return.
The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?

Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

One common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction.
It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade.
Flat is a position.
Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it.
Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month.

Be strict with yourself and walk away
Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first.
Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period.
Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture.
Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal.
When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.

That's a wrap on risk management

Thanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback.
Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results.
Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below.
News Trading Part I
  • Introduction
  • Why use the economic calendar
  • Reading the economic calendar
  • Knowing what's priced in
  • Surveys
  • Interest rates
  • First order thinking vs second order thinking
News Trading Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The mysterious 'position trim' effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases
***

Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Profitable Forex Strategy Reddit | 3 Easy Forex Strategies Easy For MT4

Profitable Forex Strategy Reddit | 3 Easy Forex Strategies Easy For MT4

The need for a trading strategy in Forex market

https://preview.redd.it/r6u8stdmeaw51.jpg?width=1320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1b0292502d6e68f5c220af5a5851aeb8061b395b
Almost all trading manuals talk about the need to have your own trading strategy. First of all, the process of creating your trading scheme allows you to perfectly understand trading and exclude from it any eventuality that hides additional risk.
Profitable forex strategy: it is a type of instruction for the trader, which helps to follow a clearly verified algorithm and safeguard his deposit from emotional errors and consequences of the unpredictability of the Forex currency market.
Thanks to her, you will always know the answer to the question: how to act in certain market conditions. You have the conditions of opening a transaction, the conditions of its closing, likewise, you do not guess if it is time or not. You do what the trading strategy tells you. This does not mean that it cannot be changed. A healthy trading scheme in the forex market must be constantly adjusted, it must comply with the realities of current market trends, but there must be no unfounded arguments in it.
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Profitable Forex Strategy Reddit

Types of trading strategies
The forms of a trading strategy can combine a variety of methods. However, several of the most commonly used options can be highlighted.
  • Trading strategy based on various complementary technical indicators
  • Trading strategy using Bollinger Bands
  • Moving Average Strategy
  • Technical figures and patterns
  • Trading with Fibonacci levels
  • Candlestick trading strategy
  • Trend trading strategy
  • Flat trading strategy
  • Scalping
  • Fundamental analysis as the basis of the strategy

Three most profitable Forex strategies

Important! These strategies are the basis for building your own trading system. Indicator settings and recommended pending order levels are for consultation only. If you do not get a satisfactory outcome in the test result or in a live account, that does not mean that the problem is the strategy. It is enough to choose individual parameters of indicators under a separate asset and under the current market situation.

1. “Bali” scalping strategy

This strategy is one of the most popular, at least its description can be found on many websites. However, the recommendations will be different. According to the author's idea, "Bali" refers to scalping tactics, as it facilitates a fairly short stop loss (SL) and take profit (TP). However, the recommended time frame is high, because the signals appear not very often. The authors recommend using the H1 interval and the EUR / USD currency pair.
Indicators used:
  • Linear Weighted Moving Average. Period 48 (red line).
https://preview.redd.it/9mhs67mxeaw51.jpg?width=461&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=913d428edd4cab0a3237e7039829a76dd587f1f5
The weighted linear moving average here acts as an additional filter. Due to the fact that LWMA gives more weight to the values ​​of the last periods, the indicator in the long periods practically excludes delays. In some cases, LWMA can give a signal beforehand, but in this strategy only the moving position relative to price is important. Bearish LWMA is a buy signal, sell bullish.
  • Trend Envelopes_v2. Period 2 (orange and blue lines).
https://preview.redd.it/8bap0s41faw51.jpg?width=627&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a6236ad06765280bbfd655fa1fb4153b28aaaf56
The indicator is also based on the moving average, but the formula is slightly different for the calculation. Its marking is more precise (the impact of price noise has been eliminated). It allows you to identify the twists of the trend compared to the usual mobile with a slight anticipation. Trend Envelopes has an interesting property: the color of the line and its new location changes when the price penetrates its old trend line, a kind of signal.
  • DSS of momentum. The configuration in the screenshot below.
https://preview.redd.it/9ch27cj4faw51.jpg?width=630&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=00558bbd90378009bef33b7c96c77f884b912667
The indicator is placed in a separate window below the chart. This is an oscillator whose task is to determine the pivot points of the trend. And it does so much faster than standard oscillators. It has two lines: the signal is dotted, the additional line is solid, but the receiver has 2 kinds of colors (orange and green).
  • Important! Note that the indicators for the “Bali” strategy are chosen in such a way as to ultimately give an early signal. This gives the trader time to confirm the signal and check the fundamentals.
MA is one of the basics on MT4, the other two indicators can be found in the archive for free here. To add them to the platform, click on MT4: "File / Open data directory". In the folder that opens, follow the following path: MQL4 / Indicators. Copy the flags to the folder and restart the platform.
Also Read: Make Money With Trading
Conditions to open a long position:
  • Price penetrates the orange Trend Envelopes line from the bottom up. At the same time in the same candle there is a change of the orange line that falls to a growing celestial.
  • The candle is above LWMA. Once the above condition has been met, we wait for the candle to appear above the moving one. It is important that it closes above the LWMA red line. It is mandatory to have a Skyline Trend Envelopes on a signal candle.
  • The additional DSS of momentum line on the signal candle is green and is above the dotted line of the signal (that is, it crosses or crosses it).
We open a trade at the close of the signal candle. The recommended stop level is 20-25 points in 4-digit quotes, take profit at 40-50 points.
https://preview.redd.it/t48d55s8faw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1e93863745e74dec536178539817225767cbeb1c
The arrow indicates a signal candle where a Trend Envelopes color change occurred. Note (purple ovals) that the blue line is below the orange line and goes upwards (in other cases the signal should be ignored). In the signal candle, the green DSS of momentum line is above the dotted line.
Conditions to open a short position:
  • Price penetrates the Trend Envelopes sky line from top to bottom. At the same time in the same candle there is a change from the increasing celestial line to the falling orange.
  • The candle is below LWMA. Once the above condition has been met, we wait for the candle to appear below the mobile. It is important that it closes below the LWMA red line. It is mandatory to have an orange Trend Envelopes line on a signal candle.
  • The additional DSS of momentum line on the signal candle is orange and is below the dotted line of the signal (i.e. crosses or crosses it).
https://preview.redd.it/6uixkl1dfaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dd53442c633e80c1e55da72cd5ffe9cda2e85b8a
Some examples where a transaction cannot be opened:
  1. In the screenshot below the signal candle closed at the moving level (red line), it was practically below it.
https://preview.redd.it/2o1wpocgfaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=58d3286bf2884b5f0dfdaa0a62b68d2d50cdabf8
  1. In the screenshot below the signal candle is DSS below its signal line. Also, the celestial line is horizontal and not ascending.
https://preview.redd.it/1nfi1etjfaw51.jpg?width=801&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ff9fcbc10a485c5102ef7a135de47332827caf54
The signals are relatively rare, a signal can be expected for several days. In half the cases, it is better to control the transaction and close in advance, without waiting for profit taking. We do not operate at the time of flat. Try this strategy directly in the browser and see the result.
>>> Forex Signals With Unbeatable Performance: Verified Forex Results And 5° Rated On Investing.com |Free Forex Signals Trial: CLICK HERE TO JOIN FOR FREE

2. “Va-Bank” candle strategy

This profitable Forex strategy is weekly and can be used on different currency pairs. It is based on the spring principle of price movement, what went up quickly, sooner or later must fall. To trade you will only need a schedule on any platform and W1 time frame (although the daily interval can be used).
You should estimate the size of the candle bodies of different currency pairs ( AUDCAD , AUDJPY , AUDUSD , EURGBP , EURJPY , GBPUSD , CHFJPY , NZDCHF , EURAUD , AUDCHF , CADCHF , EURUSD , EURCAD , GBPCHF ) and choose the largest distance from the opening to the close of the candle in the framework of the week. In this to open a transaction at the beginning of the following week.
Conditions to open a long position:
  • The bearish candle, which signifies last week's movement, has a relatively large body.
Open a long position early next week. Make sure to place a stop loss at 100-140 points and a take profit at 50-70 points. When it is midweek, close the order if it has not yet been closed at take profit or stop loss. After that, wait again for the beginning of the week and repeat the procedure, in any case do not open operations at the end of the current week.
https://preview.redd.it/vuihnqspfaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7641e9d7701911cc255c4f0c8a53e1660c35c9fe
On this chart it is clearly seen that after each large bearish candle there is necessarily a bullish candle (although smaller). The only question is what period to take where it makes sense to compare the relative length of the candles. Here everything is individual for each currency pair. Note that a rising candle was observed followed by a few small bearish candles. But when it comes to minimizing risks, it is best not to open a long response position, as the relatively small decline from the previous week may continue.
Conditions to open a short position:
  • The bullish candle, which signifies last week's movement, has a relatively large body.
We open a short position early next week.
https://preview.redd.it/tv4zmf5ufaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=61cd1dcfc4aebfa6f80343b6c51f7a6e46358602
The red arrows point to the candles that had a large body around the previous bullish candles. Almost all signals turned out to be profitable, except for the transactions indicated by a blue arrow. The shortcomings of the strategy are rare signs, albeit with a high probability of profit. The best thing is that it can be used in several pairs at the same time.
This strategy has an interesting modification based on similar logic. Investors with little capital opt for intraday strategies, as their money is insufficient to exert radical pressure on the market. Therefore, if there is a strong move on the weekly chart, this may indicate a cluster of large strong traders. In other words, if there are three weekly candles in one direction, it is most likely the fourth. Here you also have to take into account the psychological factor, 4 candles is equal to one month, and those who "push" the market in one direction, within a month will begin to set profits.
Strategy principle:
  • A "three candles" pattern (ascending and descending) formed on the weekly chart.
  • It is preferable that each subsequent candle was larger than the previous one. Doji is not taken into account (disembodied candles).
  • Stop is placed at the closing level of the first candle of the constructed formation. Take profit at 50-100% of the last candle, but it is often better to manually close the trade.
An example of this type of formation in the screenshot below.
https://preview.redd.it/iu7cwa7xfaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9195d24b72d2bda5394614380e9e5bc167f108a5
Of the 5 patterns, 4 were effective. Lack of strategy, the pattern can be expected 2-3 months. But when launching a multi-currency strategy this expectation is justified. Consider swaps!
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3. Parabolic Profit Based on Moving Average

This strategy is universal and is usually given as an example for novice traders. It uses classic EMA (Exponential Moving Average) indicators for MT4 and Parabolic SAR, which acts as a confirmatory indicator.
The strategy is trend. Most sources suggest using it in "minutes", but price noise reduces its efficiency. It is better to use M15-M30 intervals. Currency pairs - Any, but you may need to adjust the indicator settings.
Indicators used:
  • EMA with periods 5, 25 and 50. EMA (5) in red, EMA (25) and EMA (50) in yellow. Apply to Close (closing price).
https://preview.redd.it/ly7ju8o3gaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=61dee5b0d994d09a375e01e2b9afe188dd2ee0ed
  • Parabolic SAR, parameters remain unchanged (color correct at your discretion).
https://preview.redd.it/sonpv1m8gaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=823e9ce5d279d3a98ef072694766a112a3ece775
Conditions to open a long position:
  • Red EMA (5) crosses the yellows from bottom to top.
  • Parabolic SAR is located under the sails.
Conditions to open a short position:
  • Red EMA (5) crosses the yellows from top to bottom.
  • Parabolic SAR is located above the candles.
The transaction can be opened on the same candle where the mobile crossover occurred. Stop loss at the local minimum, take profit at 20-25 points. But with the manual management of transactions you can extract great benefits. For example, close at the time of the transition from EMA (5) to a horizontal position (change of the angle of inclination of the growth to flat).
https://preview.redd.it/4un92jlegaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=406a700c00722349622d031e20d0858e4196d18b
This screen shows that all three signals (two long and one short) were effective. It would be possible to enter the market on the candle by following the signal (in order to accurately verify the direction of the trend), but you would then miss the right time to enter. It is up to you to decide whether it is worth the risk. For one-hour intervals, these parameters hardly work, so be sure to check the performance of the indicators for each period of time in a minimum span of three years.
And now that you know the theory, a few words about how to put these strategies into practice.
Ready? Then let's get started!

From the theory to the practice

Step 1. Open demo account It's free, requires no deposit, takes up to 15 minutes, and no verification required. On the main page of your broker there is for sures a button "Register", click and follow the instructions. An account can also be opened from other menus (for example, from the top menu, from the commercial conditions of the account, etc.).
Step 2. Familiarize yourself with the functionality of the Personal Area. It won't take long. It is at the most user friendly and intuitive. You just need to understand the instruments of the platform and understand how the trades are opened.
Step 3. Launch the trading platform. The Personal Area has the platform incorporated, but it is impossible to add templates. Hence, the "Bali" and "Parabolic Profit" strategies can only be executed on MT4.

Characteristics of an effective Forex strategy Reddit

And finally, let's see what makes a profitable Forex strategy effective. What properties should it have? Perhaps three of the most important characteristics can be pointed out.
  • The minimum number of lag indicators. The smaller they are, the greater the forecast accuracy.
  • Easy. Understanding your strategy is more important than your saturation with complex elements, formulas, and schematics.
  • Uniqueness. Any trading strategy must be "tailored" to your trading style, your character, your circumstances, and so on.
It is very important to develop your own trading strategy, but it is necessary to test a large number of already available and proven strategies. On the Forex blog you will find trading strategies available for download. Before using a live account, test your chosen strategy on the demo account on the MetaTrader trading platform.
Conclusion. To successfully trade the Forex currency market, create your own trading strategy. Learn what's new, learn out-of-the-box trading schemes, and improve your individual action plan in the market. Only in this case, the trading results will satisfy you to the fullest. Success, dear readers!
>>> Forex Signals With Unbeatable Performance: Verified Forex Results And 5° Rated On Investing.com |Free Forex Signals Trial: CLICK HERE TO JOIN FOR FREE
Join the community for more articles on trading and making money on the Forex and Stock market.
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Disclosure: This post contains affiliate links, if you click and make a purchase I may receive a commission - This has NO extra cost for you.
submitted by kayakero to makemoneyforexreddit [link] [comments]

I have created a monster.

I have been trading for 3 months (6 months demo before that). Up until 3 days ago I have always traded with discipline, set SL, understood risk management and make reports out of downloadable CSV data from the broker. I even journal each trade at the end of the day. Each trade I make risks from 0.5% - 2% depending on how confident I am on the particular trade. The first 2 months of grind made 5% and 7% respectively.
Several days ago, I lost 3 trades in a row and felt like George Costanza. It was especially demoralizing because I followed the technical, fundamental, trend, and confirmed with indicator, etc... yet, each went straight for my SL. I took the day off and reflected on what I did wrong. I lost 6% of my capital that day, a whole month's work.
The very next day, during the Fed chair Powell speech, I focused on EUUSD, and as the chart started to run higher and higher, I am not sure what came over me, I entered long at 1.18401 and risked 20% of my capital. I was going to enter my usual 2% risk, but the greed (subconsciously?) in me added an extra 0. The very second the trade was entered, I felt a hot flash and my heart started pumping, I entered into loss territory, my heart sunk as I watch it go down 10 pips, 15 pips, if only for 15 seconds. Then it started going up, and it was exhilarating watching the profits. I had the good sense to enter TP at 1.189, and it got there 15 minutes later. I had just made a little over 10% of my capital in 15 minutes. Recovered yesterday's 6% loss and then some.
I told my self that this was a one time thing, stupid and impulsive thing to do... until the next day...
I saw a good opportunity with USD/JPY. I didn't even bother to check anything, technical, fundamental, indicators, NOTHING! Just that vertical cliff short candle... , my god, that full short candle, and the speed! This time, very much a conscious decision, I entered short with 30% of my capital at 106.5. 4 hours later, I hit my TP at 105.5. I had made 30% of my capital in 4 hours.
In the last 2 trading days, up 40% of my capital, including my previous 2 months of measly 12% in comparison, I am roughly up 50% of my original capital in 3 months.
This has been a good week to say the least. But I am afraid I have created an insatiable monster. The greed has overtaken good sense, and this is quite possibly the origin story of a blown account.
submitted by DodoGizmo to Forex [link] [comments]

Trends Forex Free Download E-book

Trends Forex Free Download E-book
Hello
Currently there are many strategies and indicators that always promise great returns. But in the end they fail and the reality is very different.
What has worked for me is trading only trends in price. The noise that price, ranges and accumulations make I just ignore. I only trade trends.
I focus on the major pairs of the Forex Market. It really works because my strategy is based on 100% "Price Action" and not indicators.
I leave you an ebook that may interest you. "Understanding The Myths Of Market Trends And Patterns" Download free.
If you find the software interesting, I'll leave you the url so you can review it.
FXTrendy
Thank you and regards
Core Business JG

https://preview.redd.it/84tyd8s5wau51.png?width=980&format=png&auto=webp&s=7153949f7591ad5a951115748847f0512cd6cf76
submitted by CoreBusinessJG to u/CoreBusinessJG [link] [comments]

VFXALERT

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The vfxAlert software provides a full range of analytical tools online, a convenient interface for working with any broker. In one working window, we show the most necessary data in order to correctly assess the situation on the market. The vfxAlert signals include direct binary signals, online charts, trend indicator, market news. You can use binary options signals online, in a browser window, without downloading the vfxAlert application.
submitted by VFXALERT5 to u/VFXALERT5 [link] [comments]

Indicators for NNFX traders

EDIT: For anyone new to NNFX (No-nonsense forex) he goes by VP and has a youtube channel where he explains how to build a systematic trading strategy, check it out if you're interested.
Not how I trade anymore, but I've collected quite a few indicators that others might want to use. These did well in my testing but I can't guarantee that they will work well for you. These are for MT4 on the daily chart, and I've given the best parameters (which were optimised for) in brackets. This is all for the NNFX strategy, meaning that I had a stop loss at 1.5x ATR and a half TP at 1x ATR.
C1/C2 (Trend indicators):
- T3_Trend_CF(32): https://www.mql5.com/en/code/7496
- Trinity_Impulse(27, 11): https://www.mql5.com/en/code/9717
- Momentum(16 zero cross)
- The_Heavy(38, 38): https://www.mql5.com/en/code/11567
- Schaff_Trend_Cycle(6, 25, 13 entry when it curves down/up): https://www.mql5.com/en/code/17700
Volume:
- Volatility Ratio(13 enter with trend when green): https://www.mql5.com/en/code/26159
- Waddah Attar Explosion(Histogram above the line): https://www.mql5.com/en/code/7051
Exit:
- Rex(44, 25 or 19, 11): https://forex-station.com/download/file.php?id=3354211&sid=4021ce6670f5aed2e5ff117d3aa541a0
- Waddah Attar Explosion(Histogram below the line):
- Trailing stop at 1.5x ATR
Baseline:
- NOT HULL, it repaints heavily
- Didn't do well using one
submitted by Shallllow to Forex [link] [comments]

【U.S. Election 2020】Trump or Biden: Who's tougher on China?

【U.S. Election 2020】Trump or Biden: Who's tougher on China?

Photo:Internet
As the pandemic has spread around the world this year, new rhetoric about being "tough" on China has unfurled throughout the political conversation in the United States.
Trump VS. Biden: Attitudes to China
Biden and his campaign have spoken in broad strokes without offering details about exactly how far he would be willing to confront China on trade, human rights, cyber-espionage, or its growing presence in the South China Sea.
Biden also says that he would shore up U.S. alliances, which he says Trump has badly damaged, to present a united front against Beijing and that he would invest in high-tech research and education to make the U.S. economy more competitive.
Biden only mentioned China once in his speech on Aug. 20th.
In comparison, Trump mentioned China many times in his speech on Aug. 27th.
During his speech, President Donald Trump claimed that he has "very good information" that China wants Biden to win because Biden cheers for China.
In fact, Trump enjoyed good relations with China leader Xi Jinping early in his administration while the two leaders engaged in major trade talks, and later, after the coronavirus began to spread, Trump praised Xi for his handling of the crisis. Once the relationship soured, and Trump began blaming China for U.S. public health and economic woes.
"Joe Biden's agenda is made in China. My agenda is made in the USA," Trump said.

Photo: Reuters
Trump or Biden? China expects no favours either way
Decoupling
This word gets used a lot these days. President Trump and his administration talk about it in tweets and in press statements in relation to China.
Decoupling basically means undoing more than three decades' worth of U.S. business relations with China.
Everything is on the cards: from getting American factories to pull their supply chains out of the mainland, to forcing Chinese-owned companies that operate in the U.S. - like TikTok and Tencent - to swap their Chinese owners for American ones.
Make no mistake, under a Trump administration "decoupling will be accelerated", according to Solomon Yue, vice chairman and chief executive of the Republicans Overseas lobby group.
While the U.S. has had some success in forcing American companies to stop doing business with Chinese tech giants like Huawei, it is pushing Chinese firms to develop self-sufficiency in some key industries, like chip-making and artificial intelligence.
Delisting
As part of its focus on China, the Trump administration has come up with a set of recommendations for Chinese firms listed in the U.S., setting a January 2022 deadline to comply with new rules on auditing.
While a Biden administration may not necessarily push through with the exact same ban, analysts say the scrutiny and tone of these recommendations is likely to stay.
While fears of being delisted aren't high on the list of concerns for Chinese companies that are already listed in the U.S., it's enough to sway the decisions of companies that are looking to float in the future.
Take Ant Group, for example, the mammoth Chinese digital financial services group that this week filed for an IPO.
Affiliated to the Alibaba Group, which is listed in the U.S. and Hong Kong, it chose Hong Kong and Shanghai in which to sell its shares instead of the U.S.
Increasingly other Chinese companies are likely to follow suit, as tensions between the U.S. and China get worse.
Deglobalisation
China has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of globalisation over the last 30 years. It has helped hundreds of millions of Chinese afford a better quality and standard of life, the bedrock upon which President Xi Jinping's Chinese Dream is based.
But that's precisely what President Trump says needs to change: his administration argues that China has become richer while the U.S. has become poorer.
During Mr. Trump's term, deglobalisation - where borders are less open, and trade is less free - has become a trend. And it's something that Beijing knows won't change even after the election.
Regardless of whether Biden or Trump is elected president, US-China relations Relations have a great impact on financial markets. The global market is anxiously awaiting the end of this election.


https://preview.redd.it/n1bgv6csd1n51.png?width=686&format=png&auto=webp&s=5d90f790a9631a69d1e2c121d33bf5eb20fe33c2

https://preview.redd.it/tgns8zhtd1n51.png?width=686&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b3a66ae41cf1e94d6610e97d96a5dc61eb472c0
For more information please download “TOP 1 Markets” at APP store or google play.
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.top1.trading.forex.commodity.cryptocurrency.indices
top1markets:
https://itunes.apple.com/my/app/id1461741702
top one:
https://itunes.apple.com/tw/app/id1506200136
submitted by top1markets to u/top1markets [link] [comments]

BREIF REVIEW ON DEFI.TRADE DECENTRALIZED TRADING PLATFORM

BREIF REVIEW ON DEFI.TRADE DECENTRALIZED TRADING PLATFORM
https://preview.redd.it/hkow25r9ksk51.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3538dd9050b77a7ed4ac6e48baced29da2a2e73f
ABOUT CEX AND DEX EXCHANGE Decentralized Exchange popularly known as DEX is a digital trading platform which its system of operation does not rely on any Central system or third-party services or management. Be it in terms of funds management. The system is strictly Peer to Peer (P2P) facilitated with some level of automation. This simply means a trading system is a defendant on 2 or more parties to trade. They deal with one another instead of incorporating the service of intermediary which can eventually lead to hacks, stolen funds, and all forms of manipulations. Unlike in the centralized setup where the system is strictly centralized, users who deposit their funds on the DEX received an IOU which simply means they can trade seamlessly on the platform and on the occasion where withdrawals are requested by the users, funds will be converted into cryptocurrency and transferred for withdrawals
ABOUT DEFI.TRADE Defi-trade is a global financial market for trading all sorts of digital assets.CFDs are one of the major tradable assets in Defi.trade platform. It enables seamless room for trading CFDs i.e buying and selling CFDs derivative products where traders, investors can speculate in all forms of Financial markets like Forex, indices, stock, and commodities without any need to own those assets. Traders of CFDs products don't have to own those assets, rather they agree on exchanging the digital assets price as soon as the contract has been created till it gets closed. Traders of these class of derivatives enjoy some benefits in the trading, they can speculate prices in both upward and downward moments. The profitability of the trader solely depends on the accuracy of their prediction.
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There are 4 steps to be able to trade on this platform
• Please download a wallet that supports DApp browsers such as Imtoken, Tronlink, etc. • Register the Main Account using the referral link in the DApp browser. • Deposit TRC20 or DEF tokens into the Main Account. • Predict market trends and make money.
Official Resources Website: https://defi.trade/ Website: https://live.defi.trade/ White Paper: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_ChG09bl29HTSstIpf_HFOHCeNNf7484/view Twitter: https://twitter.com/defitrade Facebook fanpage: https://www.facebook.com/defitrade/ Medium: https://medium.com/@defitrade Telegram channel: https://t.me/defitradeexchange Telegram group: https://t.me/defitradegroup
Authorship: Bitcointalk username : Amendy1 Bitcointalk profile url: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=2426201
submitted by Ammybae to ICOCryptoInfo [link] [comments]

Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (5199.KL)


https://preview.redd.it/gp18bjnlabr41.jpg?width=768&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6054e7f52e8d52da403016139ae43e0e799abf15
Download PDF of this article here: https://docdro.id/6eLgUPo
In light of the recent fall in oil prices due to the Saudi-Russian dispute and dampening demand for oil due to the lockdowns implemented globally, O&G stocks have taken a severe beating, falling approximately 50% from their highs at the beginning of the year. Not spared from this onslaught is Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (Hibiscus), a listed oil and gas (O&G) exploration and production (E&P) company.
Why invest in O&G stocks in this particularly uncertain period? For one, valuations of these stocks have fallen to multi-year lows, bringing the potential ROI on these stocks to attractive levels. Oil prices are cyclical, and are bound to return to the mean given a sufficiently long time horizon. The trick is to find those companies who can survive through this downturn and emerge into “normal” profitability once oil prices rebound.
In this article, I will explore the upsides and downsides of investing in Hibiscus. I will do my best to cater this report to newcomers to the O&G industry – rather than address exclusively experts and veterans of the O&G sector. As an equity analyst, I aim to provide a view on the company primarily, and will generally refrain from providing macro views on oil or opinions about secular trends of the sector. I hope you enjoy reading it!
Stock code: 5199.KL
Stock name: Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad
Financial information and financial reports: https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=5199
Company website: https://www.hibiscuspetroleum.com/

Company Snapshot

Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (5199.KL) is an oil and gas (O&G) upstream exploration and production (E&P) company located in Malaysia. As an E&P company, their business can be basically described as:
· looking for oil,
· drawing it out of the ground, and
· selling it on global oil markets.
This means Hibiscus’s profits are particularly exposed to fluctuating oil prices. With oil prices falling to sub-$30 from about $60 at the beginning of the year, Hibiscus’s stock price has also fallen by about 50% YTD – from around RM 1.00 to RM 0.45 (as of 5 April 2020).
https://preview.redd.it/3dqc4jraabr41.png?width=641&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ba0e8614c4e9d781edfc670016a874b90560684
https://preview.redd.it/lvdkrf0cabr41.png?width=356&format=png&auto=webp&s=46f250a713887b06986932fa475dc59c7c28582e
While the company is domiciled in Malaysia, its two main oil producing fields are located in both Malaysia and the UK. The Malaysian oil field is commonly referred to as the North Sabah field, while the UK oil field is commonly referred to as the Anasuria oil field. Hibiscus has licenses to other oil fields in different parts of the world, notably the Marigold/Sunflower oil fields in the UK and the VIC cluster in Australia, but its revenues and profits mainly stem from the former two oil producing fields.
Given that it’s a small player and has only two primary producing oil fields, it’s not surprising that Hibiscus sells its oil to a concentrated pool of customers, with 2 of them representing 80% of its revenues (i.e. Petronas and BP). Fortunately, both these customers are oil supermajors, and are unlikely to default on their obligations despite low oil prices.
At RM 0.45 per share, the market capitalization is RM 714.7m and it has a trailing PE ratio of about 5x. It doesn’t carry any debt, and it hasn’t paid a dividend in its listing history. The MD, Mr. Kenneth Gerard Pereira, owns about 10% of the company’s outstanding shares.

Reserves (Total recoverable oil) & Production (bbl/day)

To begin analyzing the company, it’s necessary to understand a little of the industry jargon. We’ll start with Reserves and Production.
In general, there are three types of categories for a company’s recoverable oil volumes – Reserves, Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources. Reserves are those oil fields which are “commercial”, which is defined as below:
As defined by the SPE PRMS, Reserves are “… quantities of petroleum anticipated to be commercially recoverable by application of development projects to known accumulations from a given date forward under defined conditions.” Therefore, Reserves must be discovered (by drilling, recoverable (with current technology), remaining in the subsurface (at the effective date of the evaluation) and “commercial” based on the development project proposed.)
Note that Reserves are associated with development projects. To be considered as “commercial”, there must be a firm intention to proceed with the project in a reasonable time frame (typically 5 years, and such intention must be based upon all of the following criteria:)
- A reasonable assessment of the future economics of the development project meeting defined investment and operating criteria; - A reasonable expectation that there will be a market for all or at least the expected sales quantities of production required to justify development; - Evidence that the necessary production and transportation facilities are available or can be made available; and - Evidence that legal, contractual, environmental and other social and economic concerns will allow for the actual implementation of the recovery project being evaluated.
Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources are further defined as below:
- Contingent Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets discovered volumes but is not (yet commercial (as defined above); and) - Prospective Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets as yet undiscovered volumes.
In the industry lingo, we generally refer to Reserves as ‘P’ and Contingent Resources as ‘C’. These ‘P’ and ‘C’ resources can be further categorized into 1P/2P/3P resources and 1C/2C/3C resources, each referring to a low/medium/high estimate of the company’s potential recoverable oil volumes:
- Low/1C/1P estimate: there should be reasonable certainty that volumes actually recovered will equal or exceed the estimate; - Best/2C/2P estimate: there should be an equal likelihood of the actual volumes of petroleum being larger or smaller than the estimate; and - High/3C/3P estimate: there is a low probability that the estimate will be exceeded.
Hence in the E&P industry, it is easy to see why most investors and analysts refer to the 2P estimate as the best estimate for a company’s actual recoverable oil volumes. This is because 2P reserves (‘2P’ referring to ‘Proved and Probable’) are a middle estimate of the recoverable oil volumes legally recognized as “commercial”.
However, there’s nothing stopping you from including 2C resources (riskier) or utilizing 1P resources (conservative) as your estimate for total recoverable oil volumes, depending on your risk appetite. In this instance, the company has provided a snapshot of its 2P and 2C resources in its analyst presentation:
https://preview.redd.it/o8qejdyc8br41.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=b3ab9be8f83badf0206adc982feda3a558d43e78
Basically, what the company is saying here is that by 2021, it will have classified as 2P reserves at least 23.7 million bbl from its Anasuria field and 20.5 million bbl from its North Sabah field – for total 2P reserves of 44.2 million bbl (we are ignoring the Australian VIC cluster as it is only estimated to reach first oil by 2022).
Furthermore, the company is stating that they have discovered (but not yet legally classified as “commercial”) a further 71 million bbl of oil from both the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, as well as the Marigold/Sunflower fields. If we include these 2C resources, the total potential recoverable oil volumes could exceed 100 million bbl.
In this report, we shall explore all valuation scenarios giving consideration to both 2P and 2C resources.
https://preview.redd.it/gk54qplf8br41.png?width=489&format=png&auto=webp&s=c905b7a6328432218b5b9dfd53cc9ef1390bd604
The company further targets a 2021 production rate of 20,000 bbl (LTM: 8,000 bbl), which includes 5,000 bbl from its Anasuria field (LTM: 2,500 bbl) and 7,000 bbl from its North Sabah field (LTM: 5,300 bbl).
This is a substantial increase in forecasted production from both existing and prospective oil fields. If it materializes, annual production rate could be as high as 7,300 mmbbl, and 2021 revenues (given FY20 USD/bbl of $60) could exceed RM 1.5 billion (FY20: RM 988 million).
However, this targeted forecast is quite a stretch from current production levels. Nevertheless, we shall consider all provided information in estimating a valuation for Hibiscus.
To understand Hibiscus’s oil production capacity and forecast its revenues and profits, we need to have a better appreciation of the performance of its two main cash-generating assets – the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field.

North Sabah oil field
https://preview.redd.it/62nssexj8br41.png?width=1003&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd78f86d51165fb9a93015e49496f7f98dad64dd
Hibiscus owns a 50% interest in the North Sabah field together with its partner Petronas, and has production rights over the field up to year 2040. The asset contains 4 oil fields, namely the St Joseph field, South Furious field, SF 30 field and Barton field.
For the sake of brevity, we shall not delve deep into the operational aspects of the fields or the contractual nature of its production sharing contract (PSC). We’ll just focus on the factors which relate to its financial performance. These are:
· Average uptime
· Total oil sold
· Average realized oil price
· Average OPEX per bbl
With regards to average uptime, we can see that the company maintains relative high facility availability, exceeding 90% uptime in all quarters of the LTM with exception of Jul-Sep 2019. The dip in average uptime was due to production enhancement projects and maintenance activities undertaken to improve the production capacity of the St Joseph and SF30 oil fields.
Hence, we can conclude that management has a good handle on operational performance. It also implies that there is little room for further improvement in production resulting from increased uptime.
As North Sabah is under a production sharing contract (PSC), there is a distinction between gross oil production and net oil production. The former relates to total oil drawn out of the ground, whereas the latter refers to Hibiscus’s share of oil production after taxes, royalties and expenses are accounted for. In this case, we want to pay attention to net oil production, not gross.
We can arrive at Hibiscus’s total oil sold for the last twelve months (LTM) by adding up the total oil sold for each of the last 4 quarters. Summing up the figures yields total oil sold for the LTM of approximately 2,075,305 bbl.
Then, we can arrive at an average realized oil price over the LTM by averaging the average realized oil price for the last 4 quarters, giving us an average realized oil price over the LTM of USD 68.57/bbl. We can do the same for average OPEX per bbl, giving us an average OPEX per bbl over the LTM of USD 13.23/bbl.
Thus, we can sum up the above financial performance of the North Sabah field with the following figures:
· Total oil sold: 2,075,305 bbl
· Average realized oil price: USD 68.57/bbl
· Average OPEX per bbl: USD 13.23/bbl

Anasuria oil field
https://preview.redd.it/586u4kfo8br41.png?width=1038&format=png&auto=webp&s=7580fc7f7df7e948754d025745a5cf47d4393c0f
Doing the same exercise as above for the Anasuria field, we arrive at the following financial performance for the Anasuria field:
· Total oil sold: 1,073,304 bbl
· Average realized oil price: USD 63.57/bbl
· Average OPEX per bbl: USD 23.22/bbl
As gas production is relatively immaterial, and to be conservative, we shall only consider the crude oil production from the Anasuria field in forecasting revenues.

Valuation (Method 1)

Putting the figures from both oil fields together, we get the following data:
https://preview.redd.it/7y6064dq8br41.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a4120563a011cf61fc6090e1cd5932602599dc2
Given that we have determined LTM EBITDA of RM 632m, the next step would be to subtract ITDA (interest, tax, depreciation & amortization) from it to obtain estimated LTM Net Profit. Using FY2020’s ITDA of approximately RM 318m as a guideline, we arrive at an estimated LTM Net Profit of RM 314m (FY20: 230m). Given the current market capitalization of RM 714.7m, this implies a trailing LTM PE of 2.3x.
Performing a sensitivity analysis given different oil prices, we arrive at the following net profit table for the company under different oil price scenarios, assuming oil production rate and ITDA remain constant:
https://preview.redd.it/xixge5sr8br41.png?width=433&format=png&auto=webp&s=288a00f6e5088d01936f0217ae7798d2cfcf11f2
From the above exercise, it becomes apparent that Hibiscus has a breakeven oil price of about USD 41.8863/bbl, and has a lot of operating leverage given the exponential rate of increase in its Net Profit with each consequent increase in oil prices.
Considering that the oil production rate (EBITDA) is likely to increase faster than ITDA’s proportion to revenues (fixed costs), at an implied PE of 4.33x, it seems likely that an investment in Hibiscus will be profitable over the next 10 years (with the assumption that oil prices will revert to the mean in the long-term).

Valuation (Method 2)

Of course, there are a lot of assumptions behind the above method of valuation. Hence, it would be prudent to perform multiple methods of valuation and compare the figures to one another.
As opposed to the profit/loss assessment in Valuation (Method 1), another way of performing a valuation would be to estimate its balance sheet value, i.e. total revenues from 2P Reserves, and assign a reasonable margin to it.
https://preview.redd.it/o2eiss6u8br41.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=03960cce698d9cedb076f3d5f571b3c59d908fa8
From the above, we understand that Hibiscus’s 2P reserves from the North Sabah and Anasuria fields alone are approximately 44.2 mmbbl (we ignore contribution from Australia’s VIC cluster as it hasn’t been developed yet).
Doing a similar sensitivity analysis of different oil prices as above, we arrive at the following estimated total revenues and accumulated net profit:
https://preview.redd.it/h8hubrmw8br41.png?width=450&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d23f0f9c3dafda89e758b815072ba335467f33e
Let’s assume that the above average of RM 9.68 billion in total realizable revenues from current 2P reserves holds true. If we assign a conservative Net Profit margin of 15% (FY20: 23%; past 5 years average: 16%), we arrive at estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves of RM 1.452 billion. Given the current market capitalization of RM 714 million, we might be able to say that the equity is worth about twice the current share price.
However, it is understandable that some readers might feel that the figures used in the above estimate (e.g. net profit margin of 15%) were randomly plucked from the sky. So how do we reconcile them with figures from the financial statements? Fortunately, there appears to be a way to do just that.
Intangible Assets
I refer you to a figure in the financial statements which provides a shortcut to the valuation of 2P Reserves. This is the carrying value of Intangible Assets on the Balance Sheet.
As of 2QFY21, that amount was RM 1,468,860,000 (i.e. RM 1.468 billion).
https://preview.redd.it/hse8ttb09br41.png?width=881&format=png&auto=webp&s=82e48b5961c905fe9273cb6346368de60202ebec
Quite coincidentally, one might observe that this figure is dangerously close to the estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves of RM 1.452 billion we calculated earlier. But why would this amount matter at all?
To answer that, I refer you to the notes of the Annual Report FY20 (AR20). On page 148 of the AR20, we find the following two paragraphs:
E&E assets comprise of rights and concession and conventional studies. Following the acquisition of a concession right to explore a licensed area, the costs incurred such as geological and geophysical surveys, drilling, commercial appraisal costs and other directly attributable costs of exploration and appraisal including technical and administrative costs, are capitalised as conventional studies, presented as intangible assets.
E&E assets are assessed for impairment when facts and circumstances suggest that the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount. The Group will allocate E&E assets to cash generating unit (“CGU”s or groups of CGUs for the purpose of assessing such assets for impairment. Each CGU or group of units to which an E&E asset is allocated will not be larger than an operating segment as disclosed in Note 39 to the financial statements.)
Hence, we can determine that firstly, the intangible asset value represents capitalized costs of acquisition of the oil fields, including technical exploration costs and costs of acquiring the relevant licenses. Secondly, an impairment review will be carried out when “the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount”, with E&E assets being allocated to “cash generating units” (CGU) for the purposes of assessment.
On page 169 of the AR20, we find the following:
Carrying amounts of the Group’s intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO are reviewed for possible impairment annually including any indicators of impairment. For the purpose of assessing impairment, assets are grouped at the lowest level CGUs for which there is a separately identifiable cash flow available. These CGUs are based on operating areas, represented by the 2011 North Sabah EOR PSC (“North Sabah”, the Anasuria Cluster, the Marigold and Sunflower fields, the VIC/P57 exploration permit (“VIC/P57”) and the VIC/L31 production license (“VIC/L31”).)
So apparently, the CGUs that have been assigned refer to the respective oil producing fields, two of which include the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field. In order to perform the impairment review, estimates of future cash flow will be made by management to assess the “recoverable amount” (as described above), subject to assumptions and an appropriate discount rate.
Hence, what we can gather up to now is that management will estimate future recoverable cash flows from a CGU (i.e. the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields), compare that to their carrying value, and perform an impairment if their future recoverable cash flows are less than their carrying value. In other words, if estimated accumulated profits from the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are less than their carrying value, an impairment is required.
So where do we find the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields? Further down on page 184 in the AR20, we see the following:
Included in rights and concession are the carrying amounts of producing field licenses in the Anasuria Cluster amounting to RM668,211,518 (2018: RM687,664,530, producing field licenses in North Sabah amounting to RM471,031,008 (2018: RM414,333,116))
Hence, we can determine that the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are RM 471m and RM 668m respectively. But where do we find the future recoverable cash flows of the fields as estimated by management, and what are the assumptions used in that calculation?
Fortunately, we find just that on page 185:
17 INTANGIBLE ASSETS (CONTINUED)
(a Anasuria Cluster)
The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for Anasuria Cluster during the current financial year. In the previous financial year, due to uncertainties in crude oil prices, the Group has assessed the recoverable amount of the intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO relating to the Anasuria Cluster. The recoverable amount is determined using the FVLCTS model based on discounted cash flows (“DCF” derived from the expected cash in/outflow pattern over the production lives.)
The key assumptions used to determine the recoverable amount for the Anasuria Cluster were as follows:
(i Discount rate of 10%;)
(ii Future cost inflation factor of 2% per annum;)
(iii Oil price forecast based on the oil price forward curve from independent parties; and,)
(iv Oil production profile based on the assessment by independent oil and gas reserve experts.)
Based on the assessments performed, the Directors concluded that the recoverable amount calculated based on the valuation model is higher than the carrying amount.
(b North Sabah)
The acquisition of the North Sabah assets was completed in the previous financial year. Details of the acquisition are as disclosed in Note 15 to the financial statements.
The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for North Sabah during the current financial year.
Here, we can see that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field was estimated based on a DCF of expected future cash flows over the production life of the asset. The key assumptions used by management all seem appropriate, including a discount rate of 10% and oil price and oil production estimates based on independent assessment. From there, management concludes that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field is higher than its carrying amount (i.e. no impairment required). Likewise, for the North Sabah field.
How do we interpret this? Basically, what management is saying is that given a 10% discount rate and independent oil price and oil production estimates, the accumulated profits (i.e. recoverable amount) from both the North Sabah and the Anasuria fields exceed their carrying amounts of RM 471m and RM 668m respectively.
In other words, according to management’s own estimates, the carrying value of the Intangible Assets of RM 1.468 billion approximates the accumulated Net Profit recoverable from 2P reserves.
To conclude Valuation (Method 2), we arrive at the following:

Our estimates Management estimates
Accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves RM 1.452 billion RM 1.468 billion

Financials

By now, we have established the basic economics of Hibiscus’s business, including its revenues (i.e. oil production and oil price scenarios), costs (OPEX, ITDA), profitability (breakeven, future earnings potential) and balance sheet value (2P reserves, valuation). Moving on, we want to gain a deeper understanding of the 3 statements to anticipate any blind spots and risks. We’ll refer to the financial statements of both the FY20 annual report and the 2Q21 quarterly report in this analysis.
For the sake of brevity, I’ll only point out those line items which need extra attention, and skip over the rest. Feel free to go through the financial statements on your own to gain a better familiarity of the business.
https://preview.redd.it/h689bss79br41.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed47fce6a5c3815dd3d4f819e31f1ce39ccf4a0b
Income Statement
First, we’ll start with the Income Statement on page 135 of the AR20. Revenues are straightforward, as we’ve discussed above. Cost of Sales and Administrative Expenses fall under the jurisdiction of OPEX, which we’ve also seen earlier. Other Expenses are mostly made up of Depreciation & Amortization of RM 115m.
Finance Costs are where things start to get tricky. Why does a company which carries no debt have such huge amounts of finance costs? The reason can be found in Note 8, where it is revealed that the bulk of finance costs relate to the unwinding of discount of provision for decommissioning costs of RM 25m (Note 32).
https://preview.redd.it/4omjptbe9br41.png?width=1019&format=png&auto=webp&s=eaabfc824134063100afa62edfd36a34a680fb60
This actually refers to the expected future costs of restoring the Anasuria and North Sabah fields to their original condition once the oil reserves have been depleted. Accounting standards require the company to provide for these decommissioning costs as they are estimable and probable. The way the decommissioning costs are accounted for is the same as an amortized loan, where the initial carrying value is recognized as a liability and the discount rate applied is reversed each year as an expense on the Income Statement. However, these expenses are largely non-cash in nature and do not necessitate a cash outflow every year (FY20: RM 69m).
Unwinding of discount on non-current other payables of RM 12m relate to contractual payments to the North Sabah sellers. We will discuss it later.
Taxation is another tricky subject, and is even more significant than Finance Costs at RM 161m. In gist, Hibiscus is subject to the 38% PITA (Petroleum Income Tax Act) under Malaysian jurisdiction, and the 30% Petroleum tax + 10% Supplementary tax under UK jurisdiction. Of the RM 161m, RM 41m of it relates to deferred tax which originates from the difference between tax treatment and accounting treatment on capitalized assets (accelerated depreciation vs straight-line depreciation). Nonetheless, what you should take away from this is that the tax expense is a tangible expense and material to breakeven analysis.
Fortunately, tax is a variable expense, and should not materially impact the cash flow of Hibiscus in today’s low oil price environment.
Note: Cash outflows for Tax Paid in FY20 was RM 97m, substantially below the RM 161m tax expense.
https://preview.redd.it/1xrnwzm89br41.png?width=732&format=png&auto=webp&s=c078bc3e18d9c79d9a6fbe1187803612753f69d8
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of Hibiscus is unexciting; I’ll just bring your attention to those line items which need additional scrutiny. I’ll use the figures in the latest 2Q21 quarterly report (2Q21) and refer to the notes in AR20 for clarity.
We’ve already discussed Intangible Assets in the section above, so I won’t dwell on it again.
Moving on, the company has Equipment of RM 582m, largely relating to O&G assets (e.g. the Anasuria FPSO vessel and CAPEX incurred on production enhancement projects). Restricted cash and bank balances represent contractual obligations for decommissioning costs of the Anasuria Cluster, and are inaccessible for use in operations.
Inventories are relatively low, despite Hibiscus being an E&P company, so forex fluctuations on carrying value of inventories are relatively immaterial. Trade receivables largely relate to entitlements from Petronas and BP (both oil supermajors), and are hence quite safe from impairment. Other receivables, deposits and prepayments are significant as they relate to security deposits placed with sellers of the oil fields acquired; these should be ignored for cash flow purposes.
Note: Total cash and bank balances do not include approximately RM 105 m proceeds from the North Sabah December 2019 offtake (which was received in January 2020)
Cash and bank balances of RM 90m do not include RM 105m of proceeds from offtake received in 3Q21 (Jan 2020). Hence, the actual cash and bank balances as of 2Q21 approximate RM 200m.
Liabilities are a little more interesting. First, I’ll draw your attention to the significant Deferred tax liabilities of RM 457m. These largely relate to the amortization of CAPEX (i.e. Equipment and capitalized E&E expenses), which is given an accelerated depreciation treatment for tax purposes.
The way this works is that the government gives Hibiscus a favorable tax treatment on capital expenditures incurred via an accelerated depreciation schedule, so that the taxable income is less than usual. However, this leads to the taxable depreciation being utilized quicker than accounting depreciation, hence the tax payable merely deferred to a later period – when the tax depreciation runs out but accounting depreciation remains. Given the capital intensive nature of the business, it is understandable why Deferred tax liabilities are so large.
We’ve discussed Provision for decommissioning costs under the Finance Costs section earlier. They are also quite significant at RM 266m.
Notably, the Other Payables and Accruals are a hefty RM 431m. What do they relate to? Basically, they are contractual obligations to the sellers of the oil fields which are only payable upon oil prices reaching certain thresholds. Hence, while they are current in nature, they will only become payable when oil prices recover to previous highs, and are hence not an immediate cash outflow concern given today’s low oil prices.
Cash Flow Statement
There is nothing in the cash flow statement which warrants concern.
Notably, the company generated OCF of approximately RM 500m in FY20 and RM 116m in 2Q21. It further incurred RM 330m and RM 234m of CAPEX in FY20 and 2Q21 respectively, largely owing to production enhancement projects to increase the production rate of the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, which according to management estimates are accretive to ROI.
Tax paid was RM 97m in FY20 and RM 61m in 2Q21 (tax expense: RM 161m and RM 62m respectively).

Risks

There are a few obvious and not-so-obvious risks that one should be aware of before investing in Hibiscus. We shall not consider operational risks (e.g. uptime, OPEX) as they are outside the jurisdiction of the equity analyst. Instead, we shall focus on the financial and strategic risks largely outside the control of management. The main ones are:
· Oil prices remaining subdued for long periods of time
· Fluctuation of exchange rates
· Customer concentration risk
· 2P Reserves being less than estimated
· Significant current and non-current liabilities
· Potential issuance of equity
Oil prices remaining subdued
Of topmost concern in the minds of most analysts is whether Hibiscus has the wherewithal to sustain itself through this period of low oil prices (sub-$30). A quick and dirty estimate of annual cash outflow (i.e. burn rate) assuming a $20 oil world and historical production rates is between RM 50m-70m per year, which considering the RM 200m cash balance implies about 3-4 years of sustainability before the company runs out of cash and has to rely on external assistance for financing.
Table 1: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and exchange rates
https://preview.redd.it/gxnekd6h9br41.png?width=670&format=png&auto=webp&s=edbfb9621a43480d11e3b49de79f61a6337b3d51
The above table shows different EBITDA scenarios (RM ‘m) given different oil prices (left column) and USD:MYR exchange rates (top row). Currently, oil prices are $27 and USD:MYR is 1:4.36.
Given conservative assumptions of average OPEX/bbl of $20 (current: $15), we can safely say that the company will be loss-making as long as oil remains at $20 or below (red). However, we can see that once oil prices hit $25, the company can tank the lower-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 50m (orange), while at RM $27 it can sufficiently muddle through the higher-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 70m (green).
Hence, we can assume that as long as the average oil price over the next 3-4 years remains above $25, Hibiscus should come out of this fine without the need for any external financing.
Customer Concentration Risk
With regards to customer concentration risk, there is not much the analyst or investor can do except to accept the risk. Fortunately, 80% of revenues can be attributed to two oil supermajors (Petronas and BP), hence the risk of default on contractual obligations and trade receivables seems to be quite diminished.
2P Reserves being less than estimated
2P Reserves being less than estimated is another risk that one should keep in mind. Fortunately, the current market cap is merely RM 714m – at half of estimated recoverable amounts of RM 1.468 billion – so there’s a decent margin of safety. In addition, there are other mitigating factors which shall be discussed in the next section (‘Opportunities’).
Significant non-current and current liabilities
The significant non-current and current liabilities have been addressed in the previous section. It has been determined that they pose no threat to immediate cash flow due to them being long-term in nature (e.g. decommissioning costs, deferred tax, etc). Hence, for the purpose of assessing going concern, their amounts should not be a cause for concern.
Potential issuance of equity
Finally, we come to the possibility of external financing being required in this low oil price environment. While the company should last 3-4 years on existing cash reserves, there is always the risk of other black swan events materializing (e.g. coronavirus) or simply oil prices remaining muted for longer than 4 years.
Furthermore, management has hinted that they wish to acquire new oil assets at presently depressed prices to increase daily production rate to a targeted 20,000 bbl by end-2021. They have room to acquire debt, but they may also wish to issue equity for this purpose. Hence, the possibility of dilution to existing shareholders cannot be entirely ruled out.
However, given management’s historical track record of prioritizing ROI and optimal capital allocation, and in consideration of the fact that the MD owns 10% of outstanding shares, there is some assurance that any potential acquisitions will be accretive to EPS and therefore valuations.

Opportunities

As with the existence of risk, the presence of material opportunities also looms over the company. Some of them are discussed below:
· Increased Daily Oil Production Rate
· Inclusion of 2C Resources
· Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating
Increased Daily Oil Production Rate
The first and most obvious opportunity is the potential for increased production rate. We’ve seen in the last quarter (2Q21) that the North Sabah field increased its daily production rate by approximately 20% as a result of production enhancement projects (infill drilling), lowering OPEX/bbl as a result. To vastly oversimplify, infill drilling is the process of maximizing well density by drilling in the spaces between existing wells to improve oil production.
The same improvements are being undertaken at the Anasuria field via infill drilling, subsea debottlenecking, water injection and sidetracking of existing wells. Without boring you with industry jargon, this basically means future production rate is likely to improve going forward.
By how much can the oil production rate be improved by? Management estimates in their analyst presentation that enhancements in the Anasuria field will be able to yield 5,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 2,500 bbl/day).
Similarly, improvements in the North Sabah field is expected to yield 7,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 5,300 bbl/day).
This implies a total 2021 expected daily production rate from the two fields alone of 12,000 bbl/day (current: 8,000 bbl/day). That’s a 50% increase in yields which we haven’t factored into our valuation yet.
Furthermore, we haven’t considered any production from existing 2C resources (e.g. Marigold/Sunflower) or any potential acquisitions which may occur in the future. By management estimates, this can potentially increase production by another 8,000 bbl/day, bringing total production to 20,000 bbl/day.
While this seems like a stretch of the imagination, it pays to keep them in mind when forecasting future revenues and valuations.
Just to play around with the numbers, I’ve come up with a sensitivity analysis of possible annual EBITDA at different oil prices and daily oil production rates:
Table 2: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and daily oil production rates
https://preview.redd.it/jnpfhr5n9br41.png?width=814&format=png&auto=webp&s=bbe4b512bc17f576d87529651140cc74cde3d159
The left column represents different oil prices while the top row represents different daily oil production rates.
The green column represents EBITDA at current daily production rate of 8,000 bbl/day; the orange column represents EBITDA at targeted daily production rate of 12,000 bbl/day; while the purple column represents EBITDA at maximum daily production rate of 20,000 bbl/day.
Even conservatively assuming increased estimated annual ITDA of RM 500m (FY20: RM 318m), and long-term average oil prices of $50 (FY20: $60), the estimated Net Profit and P/E ratio is potentially lucrative at daily oil production rates of 12,000 bbl/day and above.
2C Resources
Since we’re on the topic of improved daily oil production rate, it bears to pay in mind the relatively enormous potential from Hibiscus’s 2C Resources. North Sabah’s 2C Resources alone exceed 30 mmbbl; while those from the yet undiagnosed Marigold/Sunflower fields also reach 30 mmbbl. Altogether, 2C Resources exceed 70 mmbbl, which dwarfs the 44 mmbbl of 2P Reserves we have considered up to this point in our valuation estimates.
To refresh your memory, 2C Resources represents oil volumes which have been discovered but are not yet classified as “commercial”. This means that there is reasonable certainty of the oil being recoverable, as opposed to simply being in the very early stages of exploration. So, to be conservative, we will imagine that only 50% of 2C Resources are eligible for reclassification to 2P reserves, i.e. 35 mmbbl of oil.
https://preview.redd.it/mto11iz7abr41.png?width=375&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9028ab0816b3d3e25067447f2c70acd3ebfc41a
This additional 35 mmbbl of oil represents an 80% increase to existing 2P reserves. Assuming the daily oil production rate increases similarly by 80%, we will arrive at 14,400 bbl/day of oil production. According to Table 2 above, this would yield an EBITDA of roughly RM 630m assuming $50 oil.
Comparing that estimated EBITDA to FY20’s actual EBITDA:
FY20 FY21 (incl. 2C) Difference
Daily oil production (bbl/day) 8,626 14,400 +66%
Average oil price (USD/bbl) $68.57 $50 -27%
Average OPEX/bbl (USD) $16.64 $20 +20%
EBITDA (RM ‘m) 632 630 -
Hence, even conservatively assuming lower oil prices and higher OPEX/bbl (which should decrease in the presence of higher oil volumes) than last year, we get approximately the same EBITDA as FY20.
For the sake of completeness, let’s assume that Hibiscus issues twice the no. of existing shares over the next 10 years, effectively diluting shareholders by 50%. Even without accounting for the possibility of the acquisition of new oil fields, at the current market capitalization of RM 714m, the prospective P/E would be about 10x. Not too shabby.
Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating
Hibiscus shares have recently been hit by a one-two punch from oil prices cratering from $60 to $30, as a result of both the Saudi-Russian dispute and depressed demand for oil due to coronavirus. This has massively increased supply and at the same time hugely depressed demand for oil (due to the globally coordinated lockdowns being implemented).
Given a long enough timeframe, I fully expect OPEC+ to come to an agreement and the economic effects from the coronavirus to dissipate, allowing oil prices to rebound. As we equity investors are aware, oil prices are cyclical and are bound to recover over the next 10 years.
When it does, valuations of O&G stocks (including Hibiscus’s) are likely to improve as investors overshoot expectations and begin to forecast higher oil prices into perpetuity, as they always tend to do in good times. When that time arrives, Hibiscus’s valuations are likely to become overoptimistic as all O&G stocks tend to do during oil upcycles, resulting in valuations far exceeding reasonable estimates of future earnings. If you can hold the shares up until then, it’s likely you will make much more on your investment than what we’ve been estimating.

Conclusion

Wrapping up what we’ve discussed so far, we can conclude that Hibiscus’s market capitalization of RM 714m far undershoots reasonable estimates of fair value even under conservative assumptions of recoverable oil volumes and long-term average oil prices. As a value investor, I hesitate to assign a target share price, but it’s safe to say that this stock is worth at least RM 1.00 (current: RM 0.45). Risk is relatively contained and the upside far exceeds the downside. While I have no opinion on the short-term trajectory of oil prices, I can safely recommend this stock as a long-term Buy based on fundamental research.
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Trend Based Trading Plans, Live Signals, Free Mobile App

Trend Based Trading Plans, Live Signals, Free Mobile App
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Forex King Mt4 Trading Indicator: Unlimited & FREE Download

Forex King Mt4 Trading Indicator: Unlimited & FREE Download
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NAVARRA FOREX TRADING INDICATOR FOR METATRADER 4

NAVARRA FOREX TRADING INDICATOR FOR METATRADER 4
Download free : www.forexwinners.in
NAVARRA FOREX TRADING INDICATOR is to be traded on the H4 chart only. I switch between daily and H4 charts to see what the market is doing. Daily you will see the overall trend. H4 is where you will place the trade. Sometimes you can go to H4 and see if the signal matches the H4, if it doesn't, wait for the trade set up on H4 so you get a better entry.

NAVARRA FOREX TRADING INDICATOR
NAVARRA FOREX TRADING INDICATOR
NAVARRA FOREX TRADING INDICATOR
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How to Win in Forex

If you practice strict money management rules, then you will become the casino. The house always wins because the casinos know how to control their losses.
Most people have to learn the hard way.. or don't learn from their losses at all due to emotions getting in the way. Don't be fooled by people who use big lot sizes and make big wins on social media. They suffer big losses too and if they don't control their risk management then they will not last long. The problem is that far too many people want to get rich quickly, but nobody wants to get rich slowly. Some of you, if not most, know what I'm talking about.
Take this scenario for perspective. Let's say we have a contest based on these two constants.
Who is going to come out on top? Undoubtedly, me. Why?
Because at the end of the day, money management is the only thing that will be in charge of making your account go up or down.
So how do you exactly make sure that you are using proper risk management? I would suggest either downloading a position sizing indicator and throwing that on your MT4. This will do all the math for you, saving you countless hours over time. You can find a good one on Google. If you are serious and thinking about becoming a professional forex trader for years to come then you can spend 30 minutes searching for an indicator.
The second part is to stick to your trading system. This will require some backtesting. Save your money and take the time to backtest your system. A system is needed to properly trade forex. Why? Because a system is quantifiable.
A system is basically a series of "if, then" statements.
Example: If price is below my moving average, then do not enter a long position.
You need a string of rules, or constants, to create your system. Again, if you take trading seriously, then you will take all the time you need to play with all sorts of indicators in order to find your own system until you find what works for you. This step is crucial. This is why you can never rely on another person's analysis because it is not consistent and is out of your control.
When it comes to me and my money, I want to eliminate as many things as possible that are out of my control.
With this being said, this should be a clear explanation on why price action trading is nearly impossible to consistently make profits and win in forex. There's way too much guess-work involved. Don't believe me? Have you ever found yourself asking any of these questions below? If you do, then welcome to the majority of traders who lose money.
With this said, ladies and gentlemen.. as much as you want to believe you are some kind of magician, we cannot predict the markets.. especially if you're trading with pure price action.. at least not consistently. Predicting the markets is basically the same thing as trading blindly and it's a sucker's game IMHO.
The purpose of a system is to give you an edge over the markets.
To sum up this lengthy post, here are three takeaways:
  1. Create a quantifiable trading system.
  2. Practice proper risk management.
  3. Find what works for you.
Edit: Things to study.
Baby Pips
Trading in the Zone
No Nonsense Forex
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Trend Based Trading Plans, Live Signals, Free Mobile App

Trend Based Trading Plans, Live Signals, Free Mobile App
Forexearlywarning provides trend based trading plans, live signals and multiple alert system for 8 currencies and 28 currency pairs. We trade with the larger trends and time frames of the forex market. For trade entries, we verify all trade entries using The Forex Heatmap®, our live currency strength indicator.
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Join us for our FREE weekly webinars and download our FREE mobile app, which notifies you when the market starts moving across 8 currencies.
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Forex Trend Indicator Setup, Forex Mobile App – BOTH FREE!

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Here are some simple trend indicators for conducting trend analysis of any pair or the entire forex market.
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https://preview.redd.it/bers1onyuxt31.jpg?width=572&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7195e47e0194096c1c0d2762b27c38969700841c
These trend indicators are easy to set up on Metatrader or most other forex charting systems for 9 time frames. We also have a set of videos that will teach you how to set audible price alerts and Metatrader profiles.
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Then you can start to conduct multiple time frame analysis every day and build your own trading plans for any pair.
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These trend indicators are simple and can be used by any forex trader to analyze one pair, one currency, or the entire forex market.
Traders can also download our FREE mobile app, which tell you when the market starts consistent movements across 8 different currencies.
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Good Trading, Forexearlywarning
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[educational] Technical analysis, patterns, and charts analysis for the day trader

[educational] Technical analysis, patterns, and charts analysis for the day trader
Chart patterns form a key part of day trading. Candlestick and other charts produce frequent signals that cut through price action “noise”.
The best patterns will be those that can form the backbone of a profitable day trading strategy, whether trading stocks, cryptocurrency of forex pairs.
Every day you have to choose between hundreds of trading opportunities. This is a result of a wide range of factors influencing the market. Day trading patterns enable you to decipher the multitude of options and motivations – from hope of gain and fear of loss, to short-covering, stop-loss triggers, hedging, tax consequences and plenty more.
Candlestick patterns help by painting a clear picture, and flagging up trading signals and signs of future price movements. Whilst it’s said you’ll need to use technical analysis to succeed day trading with candlestick and other patterns, it’s important to note utilizing them to your advantage is more of an art form than a rigid science.
You have to learn the power of chart patterns and the theory that governs them in order to identify the best patterns to supplement your trading style and strategies.

Use In Day Trading

Used correctly trading patterns can add a powerful tool to your arsenal. This is because history has a habit of repeating itself and the financial markets are no exception. This repetition can help you identify opportunities and anticipate potential pitfalls.
RSI, volume, plus support and resistance levels all aide your technical analysis when you’re trading. But crypto chart patterns play a crucial role in identifying breakouts and trend reversals. Mastering the art of reading these patterns will help you make smarter trades and bolster your profits, as highlighted in the highly regarded, ‘stock patterns for day trading’, by Barry Rudd.

Breakouts & Reversals

In the patterns and charts below you’ll see two recurring themes, breakouts and reversals.
  • Breakout – A breakout is simply when the price clears a specified critical level on your chart. This level could by any number of things, from a Fibonacci level, to support, resistance or trend lines.
  • Reversal – A reversal is simply a change in direction of a price trend. That change could be either positive or negative against the prevailing trend. You may also hear it called a ‘rally’, ‘correction’, or ‘trend reversal’.

Candlestick Charts

Candlestick charts are a technical tool at your disposal. They consolidate data within given time frames into single bars. Not only are the patterns relatively straightforward to interpret, but trading with candle patterns can help you attain that competitive edge over the rest of the market.
They first originated in the 18th century where they were used by Japanese rice traders. Since Steve Nison introduced them to the West with his 1991 book ‘Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques’, their popularity has surged.
Below is a break down of three of the most popular candlestick patterns used for day trading.

Shooting Star Candlestick

This is often one of the first you see when you open a chart with candlestick patterns. This bearish reversal candlestick suggests a peak. It is precisely the opposite of a hammer candle. It won’t form until at least three subsequent green candles have materialized. This will indicate an increase in price and demand. Usually, buyers lose their cool and clamber for the price to increasing highs before they realize they’ve overpaid.
The upper shadow is usually twice the size of the body. This tells you the last frantic buyers have entered trading just as those that have turned a profit have off-loaded their positions. Short-sellers then usually force the price down to the close of the candle either near or below the open. This traps the late arrivals who pushed the price high. Panic often kicks in at this point as those late arrivals swiftly exit their positions.

https://preview.redd.it/gf5dwjhbrdh31.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=437ff856bfd6ebc95da34528462ba224d964f01f

Doji Candlestick

One of the most popular candlestick patterns for trading forex is the doji candlestick (doji signifies indecision). This reversal pattern is either bearish or bullish depending on the previous candles. It will have nearly, or the same open and closing price with long shadows. It may look like a cross, but it can have an extremely small body. You will often get an indicator as to which way the reversal will head from the previous candles.
If you see previous candles are bullish, you can anticipate the next one near the underneath of the body low will trigger a short/sell signal when the doji lows break. You’ll then see trail stops above the doji highs.
Alternatively, if the previous candles are bearish then the doji will probably form a bullish reversal. Above the candlestick high, long triggers usually form with a trail stop directly under the doji low.
These candlestick patterns could be used for intraday trading with forex, stocks, cryptocurrencies and any number of other assets. But using candlestick patterns for trading interpretations requires experience, so practice on a demo account before you put real money on the line.

https://preview.redd.it/4yo650lcrdh31.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=b2aa3cdeef23e44e1e3e3047bbe2604fce0a4768

Hammer Candlestick

This is a bullish reversal candlestick. You can use this candlestick to establish capitulation bottoms. These are then normally followed by a price bump, allowing you to enter a long position.
The hammer candlestick forms at the end of a downtrend and suggests a near-term price bottom. The lower shadow is made by a new low in the downtrend pattern that then closes back near the open. The tail (lower shadow), must be a minimum of twice the size of the actual body.
The tails are those that stopped out as shorts started to cover their positions and those looking for a bargain decided to feast. Volume can also help hammer home the candle. To be certain it is a hammer candle, check where the next candle closes. It must close above the hammer candle low.
Trading with Japanese candlestick patterns has become increasingly popular in recent decades, as a result of the easy to glean and detailed information they provide. This makes them ideal for charts for beginners to get familiar with.

https://preview.redd.it/7snzz8qdrdh31.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=f83ff82f0980dd30c33bc6886ae7e7ed3a98b72f

More Popular Day Trading Patterns

Using Price Action

Many strategies using simple price action patterns are mistakenly thought to be too basic to yield significant profits. Yet price action strategies are often straightforward to employ and effective, making them ideal for both beginners and experienced traders.
Put simply, price action is how the price is likely to respond at certain levels of resistance or support. Using price action patterns from pdfs and charts will help you identify both swings and trendlines.
Whether you’re day trading stocks or forex or crypto with price patterns, these easy to follow strategies can be applied across the board.

Zone Strategy

So, how do you start day trading with short-term price patterns? you will likely employ a ‘zone strategy’. One obvious bonus to this system is it creates straightforward charts, free from complex indicators and distractions.

https://preview.redd.it/7e5x37zerdh31.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=2098a4c9df4a4556c3024cec1c176ce50c9806c0

Dead Zone

This empty zone tells you that the price action isn’t headed anywhere. There is no clear up or down trend, the market is at a standoff. If you want big profits, avoid the dead zone completely. No indicator will help you makes thousands of pips here.

The Red Zone

This is where things start to get a little interesting. Once you’re in the red zone the end goal is in sight, and that one hundred pip winner within reach. For example, if the price hits the red zone and continues to the upside, you might want to make a buy trade. It could be giving you higher highs and an indication that it will become an uptrend.
This will be likely when the sellers take hold. If the price hits the red zone and continues to the downside, a sell trade may be on the cards. You’d have new lower lows and a suggestion that it will become a downtrend.

The End Zone

This is where the magic happens. With this strategy, you want to consistently get from the red zone to the end zone. Draw rectangles on your charts like the ones found in the example. Then only trade the zones. If you draw the red zones anywhere from 10-20 pips wide, you’ll have room for the price action to do its usual retracement before heading to the downside or upside.

Outside Bar At Resistance Or Support

You’ll see a bullish outside bar if today’s low exceeded yesterdays, but the stock still rallies and closes above yesterday’s high. If the complete opposite price action took place, you’d have yourself the perfect bearish example.
Unfortunately, it isn’t as straightforward as identifying an outside candlestick and then just placing a trade. It’s prudent to find an outside day after a major break of a trend.

https://preview.redd.it/egb0lp6grdh31.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=b0170eceea5006464e5832bc3a9083c72ee677ad

Spring At Support

The spring is when the stock tests the low of a range, but then swiftly comes back into trading zone and sets off a new trend. One common mistake traders make is waiting for the last swing low to be reached. However, as you’ve probably realized already, trading setups don’t usually meet your precise requirements so don’t stress about a few pennies.

https://preview.redd.it/q82lap2hrdh31.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e40f0bc25c2df06a1d93edb68b293c858a32592

Little To No Price Retracement

Put simply, less retracement is proof the primary trend is robust and probably going to continue. Forget about coughing up on the numerous Fibonacci retracement levels. The main thing to remember is that you want the retracement to be less than 38.2%. This means even when today’s asset tests the previous swing, you’ll have a greater chance that the breakout will either hold or continue towards the direction of the primary trend.

https://preview.redd.it/ey997b2irdh31.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=c938aac51e3b3bbf1f45a11c46f4ae3dfd1b6dd4
Trading with price patterns to hand enables you to try any of these strategies. Find the one that fits in with your individual trading style. Remember, you’ll often find the best trading chart patterns aren’t overly complex, instead they paint a clear picture using minimal indicators, reducing the likelihood of mistakes and distraction.

Consider Time Frames

When you start trading with your short term price patterns pdf to hand, it’s essential you also consider time frames in your calculations. In your market, you’ll find a number of time frames simultaneously co-existing. This means you can find conflicting trends within the particular asset your trading. Your stock could be in a primary downtrend whilst also being in an intermediate short-term uptrend.
Many traders make the mistake of focusing on a specific time frame and ignoring the underlying influential primary trend. Usually, the longer the time frame the more reliable the signals. When you reduce your time frames you’ll be distracted by false moves and noise.
Many traders download examples of short-term price patterns but overlook the underlying primary trend, do not make this mistake. You should trade-off 15-minute charts, but utilize 60-minute charts to define the primary trend and 5-minute charts to establish the short-term trend.

Wrapping Up

Our understanding of chart patterns has come along way since the initial 1932 work of Richard Schabacker in ‘Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits’. Schabacker asserted then, ‘any general stock chart is a combination of countless different patterns and its accurate analysis depends upon constant study, long experience and knowledge of all the fine points, both technical and fundamental…’ So whilst there is an abundance of patterns out there, remember accurate analysis and sustained practice is required to fully reap their benefits.

The source : https://www.daytrading.com/patterns
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Trend Based Trading Plans, Live Signals, Free Mobile App

Trend Based Trading Plans, Live Signals, Free Mobile App
Forexearlywarning provides trend based trading plans, live signals and multiple alert system for 8 currencies and 28 currency pairs. We trade with the larger trends and time frames of the forex market. For trade entries, we verify all trade entries using The Forex Heatmap, our live currency strength indicator.
https://www.forexearlywarning.com/the-forex-heatmap
You can also download our mobile app FREE, it will notify you when up to 8 individual currencies start moving in real time:
https://www.forexearlywarning.com/blog/2019/07/19/forex-mobile-app/
Join us for our free weekly webinars.
Good Trading, Forexearlywarning.com


https://preview.redd.it/bojjpj47nss31.jpg?width=754&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=737feb1d8786b8560772d2e0b676ee4458ef0132
submitted by forexalerts to u/forexalerts [link] [comments]

Automated Forex Trading Software - 3 Steps to Using Automated Software

If possible, always look for real-time results rather than back tested results ​​​​​​​ Bitcoin Revolution 2 Review as they are more reliable. At a minimum, I will only conclude that results of a Forex trading software or system are reliable when there are at least 1.5 years of results available. Why You Should Not Trust Online Test "Results" Too EasilyAnother thing is that even if you find profitable past results of the system, you cannot conclude that it will necessarily be profitable. This is because some results may be only hypothetical and it is also very easy to make up profitable results by simply working backwards and curve fitting the entire system's rules. Most hypothetically profitable Forex systems and software have lost a lot of money for me before.
Having tried most Forex trading systems on the Internet, I have concluded that they are very unreliable and I would not recommend using them to generate an income. Most traders who claim that they have profitable trading systems are unable to produce real time results simply because they know that their systems are unreliable too.Trying to consistently make a profit from day trading is quite impossible and requires a lot of luck. One Forex software that is making me a lot of money is a fully automated robot that trades mostly the EUR / USD currency pair for me.
Would you like to download profitable Forex trading technical analysis software to help you make money? This type of software is primarily focused on helping the user do technical analysis on various currency pairs. Others that I have tried are even able to trade automatically immediately after they identify profitable setups. Unfortunately, more than 90% of all currency trading software that I have tested do not make money, with some losing huge amounts of my money too with no risk control methods.
This type of software is programmed with indicators and chart analysis codes. It is capable of analyzing charts within split second and shows the user where the likely possible price targets over the short and long term are. Once it has identified the possible trend movement direction, it then plots the optimal entry and exit points to assist the trader in making decisions. Some can also enter trade positions automatically for you once they have identified these trends and target take-profit & stop-loss targets.
https://freepdfreview.com/bitcoin-revolution-2-review/
submitted by steffandevin11 to u/steffandevin11 [link] [comments]

Automatic Trendline MTF Indicator 2019

Automatic Trendline MTF is a forex indicator which automatically draws the trend lines on the mt4 main chart in multi time frames. It counts the beginning points from the actual time frame’s historical data, and the trend lines ending depend on the last visible pullback level.
You can download this indicator free here
submitted by fxtory to FOREXTORY [link] [comments]

WolfpackBOT - The world's fastest and most secure trading bot

WolfpackBOT - The world's fastest and most secure trading bot

https://preview.redd.it/b2ffej55zfd21.png?width=768&format=png&auto=webp&s=196c912c5d4250be54d647648613545f74faec7d

INTRODUCTION

According to wikipedia, Blockchain is originally known as bloc chain, It is a growing list of records known as blocks which is linked using cryptography, each of these blocks contain a cryptographic hash of the initial block, a transaction data and a time stamp.
Since its emergence in the year 2008, when Nakamoto satoshi discovered and introduced bitcoin, there has been serious efforts to integrate the blockchain technology into several aspects of various process of global business , The blockchain technology has been described as having the potential to disrupt many industries with immutability, low-cost transaction, and enhanced maximum security. So many other blockchain implementations have been deployed and developed with unique features designed to specific use-cases.
The blockchain technology has made possible to issue assets through a distributed ledger framework. With cryptocurrency tokens, Assets can be given economic value in order to validate and initiate transactional processes.

ADVANTAGES OF BLOCKCHAIN:

  1. Decentralised payment processing,
  2. Creating an immutable system of recording,
  3. Reducing Cost of Transaction and
  4. Enhanced Security.
  5. Now that we have reminded ourselves of what blockchain technology is, let’s look into the subject matter.

ABOUT WolfpackBOT

WolfpackBOT is a highly advanced cryptocurrency trading software that allows for the execution of trades at lightning speed using proprietary trading algorithms, proprietary “Werewolf” Trading Analysis configurations, or user customized settings based on personal trading style. WolfpackBOT also allows for simultaneous trading access to all compatible cryptocurrency exchanges that are available to the bot, and all trading pairs with the WerewolfBOT subscription package.
WolfpackBOT is introducing an industry first, a beautiful automated cryptocurrency trading console: The WolfBOX. This efficient and sleek piece of hardware will conveniently allow for the full utilization of a bot subscription without the need for a VPS or dedicated computer. The WolfBOX will also include a built-in secure Hardware Wallet and RFID card reader to optimize ease-of-use and functionality.
WolfpackBOT trading software is enabled with limit, market, and “Wolf Trade” orders on all trading candles, including one-minute candles, with the widest array of technical trading indicators available on the market. WolfpackBOT's proprietary “Wolf Trade” orders provide superior market sell orders with a bite! WolfpackBOT is the only trading bot to feature live price scanning on your positions and also handles partial fills with ease, meaning you don’t miss out on orders. WolfpackBOT is incredibly fast and can fulfill up to 10,000 trades per day depending on market conditions and subscription package.
WolfpackBOT allows simultaneous trading access to all cryptocurrency exchanges that are available to the bot, and all trading pairs through the WerewolfBOT subscription plan. Not only do inferior bots allow limited access to one exchange and one trading pair per bot, they also store your API keys remotely on servers which are potentially susceptible to hacks and pump and dump attacks. User security and API key protection holds a high priority within the WolfpackBOT framework which is why it is the only trading bot that gives users full control with local management of their API keys.
Masternode and Proof of Work X11 Blockchain
Wolfcoin Blockchain with X11 Proof of Work Mining and Masternode Reward Systems The Wolfcoin blockchain and network are both designed and engineered to ensure store of value, transactional speed and security, and fungibility. The main goal of the Wolfcoin blockchain is to facilitate fast and secure transactions with a governance that helps sustain the network for the benefit of all users. The Wolfcoin blockchain is a two-tier network comprised of a Proof of Work (PoW) consensus mechanism powered by miners and a Proof of Service (PoSe) system powered by masternodes.
The Wolfcoin blockchain is secured through Proof of Work (PoW) in which miners attempt to solve difficult problems with specialized computers. When a problem is solved, the miner receives the right to add a new block to the blockchain. If the problem was solved correctly, the miner is rewarded once the block is added.
The second tier, which is powered by masternodes, enables Wolfcoin to facilitate private and instant transactions with Private Send and Instant Send. Masternodes are also rewarded when miners discover new blocks.
The block reward is distributed with 80% going to the masternodes and 20% going to miners. The masternode system is referred to as Proof of Service (PoSe), since the masternodes provide crucial services that support the features of the network.
Masternodes also oversee the network and have the power to reject improperly formed blocks from miners. If a miner tried to take the entire block reward for themselves, the masternode network would orphan the block ensuring that it would not be added to the blockchain.
In short, miners power the first tier, which is the basic sending and receiving of funds and prevention of double spending. Masternodes power the second tier, which provide the added features that make Wolfcoin different from other cryptocurrencies. Masternodes do not mine, and mining computers cannot serve as masternodes.
Additionally, each masternode is “secured” by 10,000 WOLF. Those WOLF remain under the sole control of their owner at all times. The funds are not locked in any way; however, if enough of the funds are moved or spent to cause the user’s holdings to drop below 10,000 Wolfcoin, the associated masternode will go offline and stop receiving rewards.
By pre-ordering your WolfpackBOT subscription, you will also receive Wolfcoin as a reward that can be utilized in the following ways:
  • Redeemable for WolfpackBOT subscriptions
  • Redeemable for the WolfBOX Console
  • Redeemable for WolfpackBOT and Wolfcoin apparel and merchandise
  • Fungible utility that can be exchanged for like value on exchanges
When you hold at least 10,000 Wolfcoin in your Wolfcoin wallet connected to a static IP address, you will become a masternode, meaning you will have a chance to receive 80 percent of the block reward every sixty seconds.

THE FEATURES

WolfpackBOT Automated Trading Software:

After the crowdsale, Wolfcoin will be the exclusive method of payment for WolfpackBOT Automated Trading Software subscriptions.

Multiple Technical Analysis Indicators:

WolfpackBOT offers the widest array of multiple Technical Analysis indicators, oscillators, configurations and settings available in the world of Automated Cryptocurrency Trading Bots. WolfpackBOT provides Bollinger Bands, Double EMA, Elliot Wave, EMA, EMA Cross, Fibonacci Sequence, KAMA, MA Cross, MACD, RSI, SMA, Stochastic, Stochastic RSI, Triple EMA, and many more!

Shorting Features:

WolfpackBOT includes Cryptocurrency Shorting Features that allow users to short their positions and buy them back at the lower price to maximize their returns.

Copyrighted Crash Protection:

Crash Protection, one of WolfpackBOT's most advanced features, enables users the option to automatically scan and convert all positions to a stable coin at the sign of our proprietary Hidden Bear Divergence Indicator, and then buy back into base currency to resume trading at the sign of our proprietary Hidden Bull Divergence Indicator.

Language Translator:

WolfpackBOT has a built in Language Translator that instantly translates the entire BOT into Dutch, English, French, German, or Spanish.

All Trading Pairs on all available Exchanges:

WolfpackBOT allows our customers to simultaneously trade on multiple cryptocurrency exchanges, and with all the exchange’s trading pairs available for trading. The best part is that it’s all possible on one bot with one subscription to the WerewolfBOT package!

Coin Selector:

While other automated trading platforms only allow for a limited amount of coins per subscription, WolfpackBOT allows all trading pairs and all coins to be traded on all the available major exchanges with the WerewolfBOT subscription. WolfpackBOT's proprietary Coin Selector allows for users to choose whether to trade all cryptocurrencies or blacklist some, thus not trading them at all, as well as search for the highest volume, greatest performing, or a specific volatility range of coins for a given timeframe.

Werewolf Configurations and Settings:

Werewolf Configurations and Settings are copyrighted trading algorithms that use proprietary optimum settings for trading: the perfect configuration for experienced and inexperienced traders alike. These settings can be adjusted to the current market trend, with preset configurations for bear, sideways, and bull markets.

Werewolf Ultimate:

Werewolf Ultimate is the ultimate choice when trading. It doesn't trade a particular trading pair or particular coins, it trades them all. It goes in for the kill to increase the potential returns. Crash Protection is a built-in feature in Werewolf Ultimate.

Werewolf Bull Market:

Werewolf Bull Market are preset settings and configurations that are usable when your Base Trading Pair is in a Bull Run. Werewolf Bull Market settings are optimized for such conditions and should only be used in a Bull Run Market.

Werewolf Sideways Market:

Werewolf Sideways Market are preset settings and configurations that are usable when your Base Trading Pair is trading sideways. Werewolf Sideways Market settings are optimized for such conditions and should only be used in a Sideways Trading Market.

Werewolf Bear Market:

Werewolf Bear Market are preset settings and configurations that are usable when your Base Trading Pair is in a Bear Run. Werewolf Bear Market settings are optimized for such conditions and should only be used in a Bear Run Market.

The WolfBOX Hardware Console:

WolfpackBOT also offers an industry first: a beautiful hardware console, The WolfBOX. Our console comes preloaded with WolfpackBOT Automated Trading Software and also includes a built-in secure hardware wallet. Some of the key features of the WolfBOX include our high-speed CPU, solid-state hard drive, built-in RFID card reader, and integrated Bitpay and Coinbase wallets.

Wolfpack Consulting

Our company offers its services and expertise as Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Specialists to individuals and companies. We offer consulting services in the fields of blockchain and cryptocurrency development and management.

Wolfpack Philanthropy

We are dedicated to the proposition that we have a responsibility to use a portion of our company’s revenue to help create a better world and a brighter future. As we move forward, our philanthropic efforts include environmental stewardship, renewable energy, human rights, economic development, as well as animal and wildlife rescue and conservation with an emphasis on dogs and wolves.

Wolfcoin Information

THE WOLFCOIN Wolfcoin is the coin that fuels all WolfpackBOT's projects.
This utility, coupled with the reward systems with mining and Masternoding capabilities, makes the use of Wolfcoin potentially appealing to all WolfpackBOT users whom are interested in receiving additional Wolfcoin for subscriptions, merchandise and other rewards such as passive cryptocurrency portfolio growth.
THE WOLFCOIN WALLET WolfpackBOT uses our proprietary Wolfcoin Core QT wallet.
February 2018 Conceptual development of WolfpackBOT Software
May 2018 Company Roadmap development Alpha models of WolfpackBOT Software
June 2018 Ongoing research, development, and testing
October 2018 Advertising and Marketing Campaign Starts Wallets available for payment; BTC, BTG, DASH, DOGE, ETC, ETH, LTC October 15 - Pre-registration begins
November 2018 November 1 - Crowdsale Stage I begins
December 2018 Official presentation of WolfpackBOT beta Software Preview Creation of Wolfcoin (WOLF: 300,000,000 coins pre-mined on Genesis Block) WolfpackBOT beta Software release to selected customers
December 21 - Launch network and mine Genesis block
December 22 - PoW / Mainnet
December 23 - Blockchain and network testing
December 28 - Iquidis Wolfcoin Block Explorer released on our website
January 2019 January 1 - Wolfcoin Core wallets available for download on the website January 1 - Wallet and Masternode Tutorial available January 1 - Masternode and PoW instructional videos available January 1 - Subscription Pre-order Coin Rewards disbursed Announcement listing WOLF on top-10 Exchange
February 2019 February 1 - Crowdsale Stage I Ends February 1 - Crowdsale Stage II Begins
March 2019 March 15 - Crowdsale Stage II Ends March 15 - Crowdsale Stage III Begins WolfpackBOT Software roll-out to contributors WolfBOX Console available for Pre-order
April 2019 WolfpackBOT Subscriptions available for customers First Major version released: automated, manual, and paper trading WolfpackBOT Live support center April 30 - Crowdsale Stage III Ends
May 2019 WolfBOX Consoles Pre-orders first shipment
June 2019 New trading features such as new exchanges, strategy options and indicators
July 2019 New trading features such as new exchanges, strategy options or indicators
August 2019 WolfpackBOT Software Trading Platform V2.0 Second major release: Strategy Marketplace and Back-testing
September 2019 New trading features such as new exchanges, strategy options or indicators
October 2019 WolfpackBOT Software Trading Platform V3.0 Third major release: Signals Marketplace (Supporting 3rd Party App Signals) Mobile Application for WolfpackBOT Software and Trading Platform
November 2019 New trading features such as new exchanges, strategy options or indicator
December 2019 WolfpackBOT Software Trading Platform V4.0
January 2020 WolfpackBOT Software Trading Platform V5.0 Fourth major release: Machine Learning Strategy Optimization

THE AMAZING TEAM

Philip Longhurst Chief Executive Officer The leader of our pack and the man behind the WolfpackBOT trading bot, Philip Longhurst is a mathematical genius, engineer, day trader, and animal rescuer. As an account manager for J.P. Morgan and MBNA Bank, Phil managed the accounts of several high-profile clients and businesses. He has been successfully trading stocks for over twenty-five years and has successfully applied his trading expertise and mathematical acumen to the cryptocurrency market since 2013.
Philip holds bachelor's degrees in mechanical engineering and business administration and is a loving husband, father, and family man who has been rescuing dogs since 1995. His driving desire is to use the success of Wolfpack Group to create a brighter future for humanity. He currently resides in the United States of America with his wife, daughter, and dogs.
Rogier Pointl Chief Financial Officer Rogier Pointl is a successful entrepreneur with nearly twenty-five years of experience in business management, marketing, financial administration, economics, and fintech. Rogier holds bachelor's degrees in Business Communications and Financial Administration. He is a pioneer in the field of virtual reality, having served as CEO and owner of Simworld, the first virtual reality racing center in Europe, where he oversaw the development of advanced simulator and virtual reality hardware and software.
Rogier is an experienced trader and has been trading stocks since 2007. He began applying his expertise to the cryptocurrency market in 2010, gaining experience as a Bitcoin miner along the way. Rogier is a loving husband and father and currently resides in the Netherlands with his wife and two daughters.
Jason Cormier Chief Technical Officer Jason Cormier is a humble -but extraordinary- individual who is blessed with a Mensa IQ of 151, he is continually driven by a desire for knowledge and self-growth. He is self-taught in Visual Basics, C#, C++, HTML, and CSS and began developing programs and applications at the age of 14, including the TCB Wallet, which was the first ever wallet program that held its users' log in names and passwords. Jason is a cryptocurrency guru whose expertise includes cryptocurrency mining farms, proof-of-stake, masternodes, and cryptocurrency trading.
Jason holds Associate degrees in Computer Science and Psychology, and currently resides in the United States of America with his wife and son.
Jay McKinney Chief Web Development and Design Officer Jay is a veteran of the Iraq War who put his life on the line in combat to protect our freedoms. To center himself while stationed in the Iraqi warzone, he taught himself C# as he knew honing his Web Development skills would help him provide a better future for himself and his family. Upon returning home safely, he worked his way through college and holds bachelor's degrees in Computer Programming and Web Development & Design.
Jay has worked for the Kentucky Housing Corporation, serving as a software engineer and web developer. He is a loving family man who currently resides in the United States of America with his wife and two children.
David Johnson Chief Software Development Officer David holds a Master of Science degree in Information Systems and a Bachelor's degree in Business Administration with a specialization in Information Systems, graduating with Magna Cum Laude status. He has worked for the Kentucky Housing Corporation, serving as a network analyst and software engineer. As an entrepreneur, he has owned his own web and software development company since 2009, creating and maintaining several websites in C# and PHP, and has been operating the crypto-oriented YouTube channel BigBits since 2017, where he discusses automated Cryptocurrency trading strategies.
David is a proud father of two and resides in the United States of America with his wife and children. Like any good Kentuckian, he is a huge fan of the University of Kentucky's college sports teams.
Gabriel Condrea Software and Web Development Officer Gabriel Condrea holds a bachelor's degree in electrical and computer engineering and has worked as a software developer and senior systems engineer in both the United States and the United Kingdom, working with a variety of programming languages and IDEs. He has used his expertise to create Manufacturing and SCADA systems in industrial applications.
Gabriel also applies his engineering skills to cryptocurrency day trading, seeking to automate the process. He loves to travel and currently resides in the United States with his girlfriend.
Igor Otorepec Chief Hardware Development Officer Igor is an engineer with twenty years of experience specializing in advanced PLC programming and industrial robotics. He is also an IT security expert and a CEC Certified Ethical Cracker who uses his skills to expose and patch security vulnerabilities in blockchain codes.
Igor is an advanced cryptocurrency trader and Kung Fu master who uses bio-hacking as a way of life to keep his 'chi' constantly centered. He currently resides in Austria with his loving wife.
Manik Ehhsan Director of Marketing and Public Relations Manik holds a Bachelor's degree in Computer Science and has over five years of experience in Web Development, Digital Marketing and Graphics Design. He has also managed the marketing for more than 30 successful Cryptocurrency start-ups and projects, and specializes in SEO and ASO. Manik is also a Cryptocurrency project promotion expert with an emphasis on Masternodes and building Social Media Communities.
Manik has focused his life on Cryptocurrency and currently resides in Bangladesh with his loving family.
Rance Garrison Chief Marketing Officer Rance Garrison holds a bachelor's degree in Business Administration and specialized in Seminary Studies for his Master's degree. He served as an AmeriCorps VISTA at WMMT-FM, the radio station owned by Appalshop, an arts and education center in Kentucky, and has also specialized in local cable television advertising. Rance is also a musician who has released several albums independently over the last decade.
Rance is very dedicated to his local community and is most excited by the potential implications of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology for rural and remote economies. He currently resides in the United States of America with his wife, dog, and cats.
Paul Gabens Chief Public Relations Officer A master negotiator with a penchant for strategy, Paul Gabens brings more than twenty years of marketing and promotional experience in the automotive, hospitality, and entertainment industries to the Wolfpack. He is also an avid stock and cryptocurrency trader, having first entered into the cryptocurrency market two years ago, embracing his passion for crypto with the same vigor as his love for travel, classic cars, extreme roller coasters, and surfing.
Paul holds degrees in business management, marketing, and automotive aftermarket. He currently resides in the United States with his fiancé and two cats.
Blake Stanley Marketing and Social Media Officer Blake Stanley is a cryptocurrency enthusiast who also has over six years of experience managing both government and private sector client and customer relations. A strategic thinker and expert in the field of social media-based advertising, Blake also owns and manages his own online marketing company where he has been successfully curating and implementing online marketing and advertising strategies for his clients for the past three years.
Blake is a proud father and family man and currently lives in the United States with his daughter and fiancé.
Martin Kilgore Market and Trading Analyst Martin Kilgore holds bachelor’s degrees in both accounting and mathematics, having researched Knot Theory and the Jones Polynomial during his undergraduate studies, giving him a firm edge when analyzing market conditions. He has worked as a staff accountant for several governmental organizations.
Martin lives in the United States with his fiancé.
Jonathan McDonald Chief Trading Strategy Officer Jonathan has honed his trading skills over the past five years by studying and implementing economics, financial strategy, Forex trading analysis and trading bots. Through his constant learning, he discovered Cryptocurrency after seeing the difference in market volatility and high yield trading. His fine-tuned trading strategies complement Crypto markets perfectly, and he has been implementing trading strategies to the Cryptocurrency market for over a year with phenomenal results. Jonathan is constantly improving his trading skills with an emphasis on scalping techniques. He has applied his trading skillset to the WolfpackBOT and enjoys working alongside the Wolfpack in creating the fastest trading bot on the market.
Jonathan currently resides in Canada with his supportive girlfriend and family.
Web site: https://www.wolfpackbot.com/
Technical document: https://www.wolfpackbot.com/Pdf/whitepaper_en.pdf
Bounty0x username: idrixoxo
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